Farmers Insurance Open

Welcome to our Advanced Statistics page. Here's some information about our product. Tweet @DFSAlbatross or send us a DM if you have questions. We update these once or twice throughout the week, 

We start with the most important information, listed under the section "General". It's got all you need if you want to make a quick cash game lineup – DraftKings Salary, Projection, and a column we've created called "Value".

Projection is straightforward – it's how many DK points we think this golfer will score, on average. Golfers won't hit their projection exactly – half of the field should exceed their projection, and half should do worse

The "Value" column is a number assigned to each golfer that roughly represents how much his projection exceeds what we'd expect based on his salary

Next is the projection breakdown. In PGA on DraftKings, there are three ways a golfer receives points:

– Raw scoring: +8 for eagles, +3 for birdies, +0.5 for pars, and so on.

– Finishing points: +30 for winning, +20 for 2nd, and so on.

– Bonus points: the other cute ways that golfers can accumulate points on DraftKings: 3 birdies in a row (+3), bogey free rounds (+3), all 4 rounds under 70 (+5) or hole in ones (+10)

You can look at a player's projection breakdown to design your strategies. For cash games, you might want to only rely on raw scoring since it's the most consistent stat. Your GPP strategy might use these numbers differently, though

Next we list the probabilities for a golfer finishing the tournament in above certain place. These are important, since they impact how many finishing points a golfer might receive. We also include the probability a golfer will make the cut, and the chance that he makes the first cut but receives an MDF. It's important to think about these events in terms of probabilities instead of sure things. In golf, nothing's a lock, since the game involves so much randomness

Then you'll find a golfer's projected scoring breakdown – how many birdies, pars, etc. we expect him to have on average. This could be useful to you: for example, you might want to maximize projected number of birdies if you're looking for upside.

Finally, we include a golfer's conditional projections, based on making or missing the cut. This means: if we know a player makes the cut, how many points can we expect from him? Likewise, what is his expected number of points if we know he's going to miss the cut?